Time to Retool the Rebuild
This core's time has come and gone
When Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman met with the press in April after yet another lost season, he brought along head coach Todd McLellan. This is always a good sign, as Yzerman has a knack for saying as little as possible; McLellan, on the other hand, is always willing to spill the tea.
Yzerman commented that even when the Red Wings were firmly in playoff position earlier in the regular season, the GM and coach were skeptical the club was really that good. All you had to do was take a look at the goal differential to understand this was a team that consistently got outscored; it’s tough to overcome that shortcoming over a full 82 game season.
McLellan, though, delivered the eulogy for this current leadership group, saying they finished exactly where they deserved to be – outside the playoffs for a franchise record 10th straight season.
Todd McLellan has often spoken like a man who has the full backing of his general manager and by extension team ownership, referring to some of the players on this past season’s team as being ‘just jerseys’, meaning guys who skate but add little if anything to what it takes to win hockey games. It was a new take on the popular term ‘cardio merchant’ which has the exact same meaning.
While Yzerman took full blame for the current state of the franchise, McLellan’s comments combined with Yzerman’s tepid commitment to ‘look at everything’ suggests the current core’s time has come and gone.
The Bottom Six
Since that press conference, we've only had one comment on roster changes thus far from the beat reporters. Kevin Allen, who covers the team for Detroit Hockey Now, indicated the team is unlikely to extend their pending unrestricted free agents, with Patrick Kane being the lone exception.
On the one hand, this is truly a bit of ‘no shit’ reporting: nearly all of these players alluded to in Allen’s commentary are either at or very close to the end of their careers. Travis Hamonic, Justin Holl - who was traded before the trade deadline, Erik Gustafsson and Cam Talbot were non-entities for most if not all of the entire season, which is yet another black mark for the organization’s group of pro scouts.
But that’s another article for another day.
On the other hand, I think Allen’s take doesn’t go far enough. While that’s understandable for someone whose primary job is to report the facts, it’s also lamentable given the sad state of the franchise. Everyone is fed up with the listless nature of the team once the calendar hits March.
It’s a roster largely comprised of pretenders, not contenders.
To be fair to Allen, the organization gives out absolutely nothing in the way of information regarding their intentions, so beat reporters are stuck with offering up boring takes.
So you’re saying Travis Hamonic won’t be back? Thanks for the tip my guy.
Now randos like me? We can speculate wildly. And given how comfortable McLellan seems to be with offering up his biting criticism, I think it’s safe to say the changes will be quite large both over this summer and before next season’s trade deadline.
Support for the Current Core
Let’s take a quick trip back to the end of the 2024-25 season. In the locker clean out press conferences, team captain Dylan Larkin commented that ‘the room’ was disappointed there were no trade deadline acquisitions. While Larkin’s comment has received support from sections of the fan base, the benefit of hindsight has shown this leadership group simply cannot get the club over the hump.
Yzerman responded to Larkin’s comments last spring by mentioning there were other teams who weren’t buyers but still made the playoffs. While Yzerman didn’t analyze his own team when making this response, the club lost 2nd line center Andrew Copp for the season in February, and the team’s goaltending had been a chronic issue for years. So it was certainly defensible not to add to that particular team.
The general manager eventually made several trades, bringing in goaltender John Gibson over the summer, then adding defender Justin Faulk and forward David Perron to the roster in advance of this past season’s trade deadline. When asked about Larkin’s previous comments, Yzerman declined to respond to them directly, saying instead that you ‘can’t be tone deaf’ towards criticism.
How did the team respond? The same way they have for four straight seasons.
I didn’t include March 2023 when Yzerman traded away Tyler Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha, but that team won 5 games and lost 10 over that same March time frame. It’s been the same routine, despite the fact the team has added top flight young players in the form of Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson, and Lucas Raymond; the addition of 40 goal scorer Alex DeBrincat and his trusty sidekick Patrick Kane; the acquisition of a quality starting goaltender in John Gibson; and finally, a top 4 defender Justin Faulk.
This veteran group simply hasn’t positioned the team to take that next step. If they made the playoffs at least once or twice over this time frame, you could see a path where adding young prospects like Axel Sandin Pellikka, Carter Bear, and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard would result in the team becoming more competitive, but that simply hasn’t happened.
With this being the case, It wouldn’t shock me at all if Yzerman becomes a seller prior to next season’s trade deadline in order to build around his core of Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond.
An underlying sentiment in Dylan Larkin’s comments a little over a year ago is that he’s grown tired of the rebuild. While on the one hand that’s completely understandable, on the other he was appointed team captain and is supposed to be the guy who encourages the team to keep pushing through adversity when the going gets tough.
That simply hasn’t happened.
To make matters worse, Larkin only scored two even-strength goals from February to the end of the season, while going -4 over that same time period. To be fair, he was spectacular in the face-off circle, routinely winning well north of 50% of his draws. He also suffered a knee injury during this stretch run, with injuries unfortunately becoming a common occurrence when the captain is doing double duty for both Detroit and the US national team.
Larkin is set to turn 30 this summer, and it’s worth pointing out that the last season where Pavel Datsyuk put up north of 70 points was his age 30 season. Henrik Zetterberg narrowly missed hitting 70 points in his age 31 season, then saw his production drop off. So there’s a good chance we’ll see perhaps one or two more seasons of Larkin at the height of his capabilities.
The issue facing the franchise is it’s at an important inflection point: with Buffalo having ended their 14 year streak of missing the playoffs, Detroit currently holds the longest streak in the league for missing the playoffs. This Red Wings team was booed off home ice at the end of last season, and the expectation is that something big needs to be done to alter the direction of a team that has become known as the Dead Things 2.0.
For me, the question is whether you continue to build around a core of Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp, and John Gibson, when this core has never shown an ability to battle down the stretch to lock in a playoff berth?
The Time to Pivot
With Yzerman and McLellan seeming aligned, I think there’s a decent chance Detroit decides to move on from some of their veteran players, most notably guys who are due to hit free agency next summer, including Andrew Copp, John Gibson and Justin Faulk. If Yzerman decides to continue down the same path, you would expect these players, along with Alex DeBrincat, to be signed to new deals at some point on or after July 1.
When looking at the recent trade market, it’s not inconceivable to think Detroit could get first round draft picks for Copp, Gibson and Faulk.
For me, the next big question is whether the organization is going to stick with Alex DeBrincat?
On the one hand, trading a 40 goal scorer in DeBrincat sounds crazy; on the other, DeBrincat is 28 and his current contract ends after this upcoming season. If you aren’t convinced this leadership group is going to get this team to the playoffs, let alone go on a run to the Eastern Conference or Stanley Cup Finals, now may be the perfect time to cash in on guys who are firmly in their prime.
40 goal scorers are very difficult to come by, as only 15 players across the league scored that many goals this past season.
Should DeBrincat be put on the trade block, there would be plenty of good offers. The haul would be substantial, with the potential of multiple draft picks and perhaps even a young prospect.
Losing DeBrincat would be painful for a team that badly needs goal scoring, and I am not at all thrilled about this scenario. If you lose DeBrincat, you almost certainly lose Patrick Kane and that’s 57 goals gone from last year’s team, on a team that struggles to score goals. Detroit finished 22nd in the league for goals scored.
However when I look at where the team has been these past few seasons and what they still need on their roster in order to compete, I suspect DeBrincat may end up being a casualty as Detroit retools their rebuild.
The Missing Piece
Let’s take a quick look at what Detroit needs in order to complete the rebuild.
The one piece that has gone unfilled is unfortunately one of the most important ones: first line center. Teams with an 80+ point center are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs. There was only one team this past season with one such center that ended up missing the playoffs: Winnipeg with Mark Scheifele, who put up 103 points.
Dylan Larkin’s life would be much easier if the rebuild resulted in Detroit drafting a bonafide first-line center. The best opportunity was likely the 2020 NHL draft, but the lottery bumped Detroit - who had the absolute worst record in the league by a mile - from the first to fourth position, which prevented them from potentially drafting either Quinton Byfield or Tim Stutzle.
While Detroit made lemonade out of that draft by selecting Lucas Raymond at 4th overall, it denied them their one shot thus far at drafting a prospect capable of bumping Larkin down to the second line.
In recent drafts the Red Wings have selected Marco Kasper at 8th overall and Nate Danielson at 9th overall, but neither player has shown anything at this point to indicate they will become 80+ point centers in the NHL.
If Detroit is going to complete the rebuild that began under Steve Yzerman, they are going to need a first line center.
How does that happen?
There are typically three ways a team can address their needs. They are:
Acquire through the draft
Acquire via trade
Acquire via free agency
The vast majority of first-line centers are acquired through the draft. They are so important that a center often goes first overall. In drafts where they don’t, it’s typically because there isn’t believed to be a center of that caliber available. The 2026 draft is one such case.
Very rarely, one can be acquired via trade. Both Montreal and Buffalo acquired their top line center via trade, with Montreal trading Max Paccioretty to Vegas for Nick Suzuki, while Buffalo traded Ryan O’Reilly to St Louis for Tage Thompson. This is the exception, not the rule. Vegas acquired Jack Eichel via trade, but this was largely due to a medical dispute between Eichel and the Buffalo medical staff. There’s no need to go into the weeds here, other than to say that was a particularly unique circumstance, and as such isn’t repeatable.
Rarer still, teams will acquire a first line center via free agency. First line centers are so valuable that they rarely make it to free agency unless there is a combination of salary cap issues and the player has aged out of his prime. The most recent example is Steven Stamkos, who left Tampa for Nashville. Further back, John Tavares left New York at the age of 28 to play for his hometown Maple Leafs.
So your best odds of acquiring one of these centers is through the draft. Unfortunately, Detroit has progressed far enough through their rebuild that they are stuck in what has been termed the ‘mushy middle’: not good enough to be a respectable challenger, but not bad enough to get a top draft pick.
The Atlantic division, however, may have solved this problem, as it appears to be the most stacked division in the league.
The Atlantic division features two multiple Cup-winners in Tampa Bay and Florida, with Montreal and Buffalo both having very good young cores. Ottawa, Boston and Toronto are all teams with recent playoff appearances but have challenging questions surrounding their rosters.
Then there’s Detroit, the one team in the division that hasn’t made the playoffs over the previous three years. The rebuild has gotten Detroit to the position where they can compete for a playoff spot, but not punch their ticket to postseason play. If that’s going to change, I believe the organization is going to have to take a step back in an attempt to get that top line center just about every playoff team has on their roster.
The Athletic’s Max Bultman summed it up in one of his recent articles:
"...without a franchise forward, [other moves] may not matter. And for a team with multiple core players in their late 20s or early 30s, and still looking to just make the playoffs, that is a scary situation to be in."
Hence, my preference for the organization to sell off some pieces and retool the rebuild that began under Yzerman.
Light at the end of the Tunnel
There is some good news: if Steve Yzerman plays his cards right, he could address that glaring need for a franchise forward next summer. It just so happens the 2027 draft class is rich in depth at the center position.
How rich? Scott Wheeler has 6 centers currently ranked in the top 10, with three more in the top 15. While there doesn’t appear to be a generational forward — a defender is currently the top ranked prospect — there are enough options to feel good about the odds of addressing the organization’s biggest need: a franchise forward who is a playmaking center.
So if Steve Yzerman is willing to accept that his current core simply isn’t good enough – and we’ve got 4 straight seasons worth of data to suggest it’s not – he may decide to lean into what is by default his likely fate this upcoming season and position his club to pick as close to the top of the draft as possible.
How does that happen?
For starters, Yzerman can begin to sell off his impending free agents. The easiest to move would be Alex DeBrincat, as every team in the league needs goal scoring. You address two goals by moving DeBrincat: you reduce your team’s goal scoring output while also adding high quality draft capital, and perhaps a forward prospect who fits your younger core of players.
Another impact player he could decide to move would be John Gibson. While Gibson provided the first consistently high level of goaltending during the Yzerman era, trading him and turning the net over to the two goaltenders who spend most of this past season in Grand Rapids would likely result in the team surrendering more goals.
The combo of moving Gibson and DeBrincat instantly makes Detroit less competitive in a division that is the most competitive in the NHL.
Then, at the trade deadline, Yzerman may decide to move Justin Faulk and Andrew Copp. Faulk is a top 4 offensive d-man who can score goals at even strength, so odds are good you will get a good return for him, possibly a first round but at a bare minimum a second round draft pick. Copp has performed well in Detroit as a second line center and would provide enviable depth for a playoff-bound team. Again, a first round draft pick is a potential return, with a second rounder being the worst case scenario.
The Gamble
Are there downsides to this plan? Hell yes there are.
This is a team with a ten year streak of missing the playoffs, and its general manager would be signing up for year eleven before the puck drop on opening night. That is sure to go over poorly, and this team will get booed loudly off the ice at most home games. That’s not what any of these players signed up for.
Then there’s the 2027 draft you are pinning your hopes on in order to address that one remaining need. For starters, there doesn’t appear to be a Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, or Macklin Celebrini level talent. If there was, it would be easier to sell this retool. There was the famous rallying cry to ‘Fail for Nail’ back in 2012. The Oilers picked Nail Yakupov first overall in that draft, who ended up being one of the more notable busts in recent NHL draft history.
This is to say there’s no guarantee even if you do get the best center in this draft that he’s going to be everything you are pinning your hopes on.
Finally, there’s the draft lottery which determines your draft position through the luck of the draw. While the draft lottery isn’t as harsh towards the worst team in the league like it was back in 2020 when Detroit was moved down to the fourth position, there are no guarantees. The only guarantee if you finish the season dead last is that you will draft somewhere in the top 3. While that may sound good, it’s unlikely Detroit will be bad enough to finish with the worst record in the league.
Feel Lucky, Punk?
This current core’s window is tied to a quickly diminishing asset in Dylan Larkin, who in all likelihood has at most two more seasons of high level hockey left. Given the past four years of his prime, I believe there’s little reason to bet on this current core. Doing so would require signing many of your players in their final year of their current contract to expensive renewals.
And that’s while putting aside the question of whether players like Gibson, Faulk and Copp even want to continue to ply their trade in Detroit? It’s not unreasonable for them to want one more chance at a long playoff run, and that’s unlikely in Detroit over their final years as quality NHL players.
Beyond that, betting on this core would require paying an exorbitant amount of money, whether that be for the few free agents who will hit the market on July 1, or trades to acquire questionable upgrades, which — at best — extends this current core’s window for another 2 or 3 years.
The one trade I believe would have altered this current core’s chances of competing would have been for St Louis’ Robert Thomas, but it became clear as the trade deadline approached that he was staying put. Andy Strickland, who has covered the Blues, recently commented that Thomas isn’t being shopped.
So while on the one hand it would make sense to extend Alex DeBrincat, a more sober analysis lends itself to using what is one of your best trade chips to retool the core that has been drafted and developed.
Retooling Around the Next Core
Moritz Seider just finished 5th in Norris Trophy voting, indicating he’s one of the best defenders in the entire league. Lucas Raymond is an 80 point wing with plenty of years or elite play left in his career. These are the cornerstones you should be building around.
So while there’s no guarantee that selling off and bottoming out this upcoming season will get you that elite, franchise forward who is an 80+ point playmaking center, next summer gives you arguably your best chance at acquiring that player. If you are inclined to play the odds, my guess is those are the best ones for the future of this franchise.
If you do get that player, he perfectly fits the core of 19-25 year old players who should be expected to finally open up the franchise’s window to once again become competitive: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Axel Sandin Pellikka, Carter Bear, Max Plante, and Trey Augustine all look like high quality NHL talents.
So in my estimation, you have two options: continue to build around this current core with the hope of extending their ‘window’ for 2-3 more years until Larkin is well past his prime; or retool by selling your impending free agents with the hope of using that draft capital and a poor finish in the 2026-27 season to fill the final missing piece and complete the rebuild.
There are no easy answers, which is why I’m inclined to play the odds with an admittedly flawed draft lottery in 2027.