The Pivot

The elephant in the room has spoken

Not long after I hit send on my article yesterday, the news broke that Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin requested a trade. My article didn’t touch on Larkin much, other than to highlight his contentious relationship with Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman and — given the fact he’s set to cross the age 30 threshold — how difficult it would be to build a winner around him as the lone scoring line center.

I didn’t delve into Larkin’s future, mostly due to the fact he has trade protection, so instead I focused on trading two key figures who could help Detroit retool in an attempt to acquire a good, young scoring line center: Alex DeBrincat and John Gibson.

But this news truly changes everything. I am cautiously optimistic the organization can pivot so long as they get good value in trading their team captain.

Dylan Larkin’s Value

There are plenty of articles across the internet that will cover what it means for a professional athlete who grew up in Michigan, attended the local university, and then captained his professional team before spurning said team, so I won’t spend much time on that.

I’m going to bypass the emotional elements at play here, and give my opinion on how general manager Steve Yzerman can make the best of the hand he’s been dealt.

Dylan Larkin is on a fantastic deal for the remainder of his prime years. He’ll make $8.7 million against the salary cap for 5 more seasons. He nearly scored 35 goals last season and put up 70 points. He’s been forced to play some of the toughest minutes in Detroit so the second line can get the easy zone starts and do the scoring. He also played a big role on Team USA’s gold medal winning hockey team. The Olympics were a bit of a coming out party for Larkin across the hockey landscape.

When you combine this with the fact nearly every team in the league needs center depth, there’s every reason to believe there will be substantial interest in Larkin.

In my article yesterday I referenced the trades Montreal and Buffalo made to acquire their top line centers, and Larkin just opened up a window for Detroit to make that same trade. The expectation here should be for Yzerman to make what is termed a hockey trade: an exchange of talent that benefits both teams and fits within the windows when they plan to compete. In this scenario a team in win-now mode gets Larkin, and Detroit gets a young center who has yet to enter his prime.

While I’ve been skeptical about Larkin’s role as the team leader, I give him all the credit for realizing he needed change, and so long as he’s willing to work with the organization to find a deal that works for all parties involved, I harbor no ill will towards him.

Opinion towards Larkin has been harsh since this news broke, and to a certain extent I understand that sentiment. For me, Larkin’s time in Detroit reminds me quite a bit of the role Ben Chiarot was forced to take on when he was placed on the top pairing with Mortiz Seider due to the fact Detroit had no other top pairing d-men: more was asked from both of them than either player was capable of delivering.

When you are set up with what feels like an impossible task, at some point you have to say ‘no mas’. Yesterday was that day for Dylan Larkin, and I have nothing but respect for that decision. A change was badly needed.

The Hockey Trade

There will be no shortage of suitors who will be interested in acquiring a player of Larkin’s caliber who is signed long term to a very team-friendly contract. When it was rumored Robert Thomas was available for the equivalent of four first round draft picks, it gave a sense of how prized centers are within the league.

Of course Thomas is a few years younger and produces more offense, and crucially did not get traded, so it’s safe to say Larkin will not generate that return.

Elliotte Friedman touched on what Steve Yzerman may look to get in return:

Yzerman will not be backed into a corner. You cannot bully Steve Yzerman…[but[ he has to be practical…I think Yzerman will be pragmatic...is he going to try to trade [Larkin] for pieces that will help them now, or is he going to do another kind of…I’ll do futures or younger players who might be ready to play…and build this team around Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond?

The hope from my standpoint is Yzerman can get a good, young center who has a reasonable expectation of becoming a bonafide 1C and would fit Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond’s prime years.

Here are a few trade options and my thoughts on potential targets who may or may not position Detroit well following the Larkin era.

The Utah Mammoth

Utah has a great young center in Logan Cooley, and adding Larkin would open up their window for long playoff runs immediately. They also have very player-friendly team ownership, which may make the transition easier for Larkin after spending his entire life in Michigan.

In return, Detroit could receive Caleb Desnoyers, the 4th overall draft pick in the most recent NHL draft. The 19 year old has dominated the Quebec Maritime Junior Hockey League and put up 6 points over 7 games for Team Canada at the U20 World Junior Championships.

Desnoyers was highly praised by Elite Prospects for his passing, hockey sense and physical play. He’d be the franchise forward and playmaking center the organization has lacked since Pavel Datsyuk retired.

Tij Iginla is another prospect who may interest Detroit. Former Calgary Flame Jarome Iginla’s son plays the game the way Todd McLellan would appreciate, but he’s more winger than center, so that wouldn’t address Detroit’s biggest need in this trade. In that case you may need to package Iginla to acquire a center from another organization.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Larkin is best friends with Zach Werenski, who just won the Norris Trophy, and Columbus is not far from metro Detroit. The number of Wolverines who play hockey in the home city of Ohio State University borders on pathos, but that’s a thought for another time.

The Blue Jackets have Adam Fantilli and Charlie Coyle at center, so adding Larkin would give them some of the best depth at the pivot position in the entire league. Columbus is also located in the Metro division, which looks like an easier path to playoff hockey than the gauntlet that is the Atlantic division.

Columbus is my dark horse candidate.

What would Detroit receive in return? My guess is it would center around Cayden Lindstrom and Jackson Smith. While Lindstrom was a 4th overall pick, he’s had back problems that have stunted his development and he’s gotten off to a slow start at Michigan State University. If the Red Wings brass thinks the 20 year old center still has the same ceiling he was expected to have when he was drafted back in 2024, he would be a solid acquisition.

I’m a bit skeptical on Lindstrom as a great fit, as he’s more power forward than playmaker, and the Red Wings sorely need a pivot who can distribute the puck.

So with those questions surrounding Lindstrom’s ceiling, I’d also ask for Jackson Smith, a 14th overall pick in last summer’s draft. Elite Prospects ranked Smith 6th overall in his draft class, highlighting his skating, passing, hockey sense and physical play as strengths. He just completed his freshman season at Penn State where he put up 0.74 points per game, respectable for an 18 year old rearguard playing in one of the toughest conferences in the NCAA.

I have plenty of time for Jackson Smith.

Minnesota Wild

The rumor mills have put 2 + 2 together and have suggested Larkin could be headed to Minnesota. I am a bit skeptical here, but acknowledge there are quite a few factors in the Wild’s favor. First off, they are a playoff team with an exciting brand of hockey; second, Quinn Hughes has called Larkin a ‘big brother’ so the Twin Cities are sure to be welcoming to Dylan; finally, there’s Minnesota GM Bill Guerin, who added Larkin to Team USA’s Olympic roster and has spoken highly of him.

With all that being the case, I can see why Minnesota has been the most popular organization among the teams rumored to be interested in Larkin.

The problem with Minnesota? I’m not sure they have the assets to make the deal truly enticing for Detroit. The rumors have suggested Detroit would receive goaltender Jesper Wallstedt, but those never really made sense unless the Red Wings plan to turn around and package him to another team.

Then there’s the lack of a true center prospect. The Wild drafted Charlie Stramel in the first round back in 2023, but there’s nothing to date to indicate he’s going to be the impact forward Detroit needs. His offensive production did pop in East Lansing last season, potting 19 goals for the Spartans. He simply hasn’t been the play driver he was expected to be following his 2021-22 season where he was basically a point per game player for the US National team.

If you acquire Stramel, the hope is there’s still some development left and that he can stick at center rather than play on the wing. That’s far from ideal.

Minnesota also traded Zeev Buium and Liam Ohgren to Vancouver when they acquired Quinn Hughes, two of their most promising young talents. While neither is a center, Buium projects to be a top pairing d-man and could theoretically be used as a trade piece. To take this a step further, if you acquired Buium, you could potentially trade him to San Jose for one of their young centers, ideally Michael Misa but more likely Will Smith. That ship has sailed.

So for me, this is probably the worst case scenario, a place that would appeal to Larkin but be a poor trade partner for Detroit.

Anaheim Ducks

Steve Yzerman is very close with Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek, and the two have been trade partners as recently as this past summer, when Yzerman acquired goaltender John Gibson. Anaheim is an intriguing team that is poised to rocket out of their slumber, having drafted high caliber talent across the organization. They also play an exciting style of hockey.

While the Ducks have one of the best young pivots in the game in Leo Carlsson, they have relied heavily on 34 year old Michael Granlund to do some of the heavy lifting at the center position. Granlund only has one more year under contract, so the Ducks could benefit from a high quality center who is firmly in his prime and signed to a team-friendly contract, which perfectly describes Larkin.

Anaheim has 23 year old Mason McTavish as one of their primary centers, but he has struggled with the consistency expected from a former 3rd overall draft pick. He was a healthy scratch during the playoffs, as the Ducks attempt to instill the discipline that will help him reach his ceiling as an NHL player.

While there have been rumors the Ducks will trade McTavish, Craig Johnston, who covers the NHL for the Athletic, has suggested the Ducks are in no hurry to move McTavish. The implication is the only way he’d be moved is if he brought back an impressive haul. Dylan Larkin would be that type of acquisition: pairing him with Carlsson would supercharge the Ducks organization over the next 3-5 years.

If I was Steve Yzerman, though, I’d target Roger McQueen. If you are lucky, McQueen becomes Detroit’s Tage Thompson: a massive pivot who alters the fate of a dormant franchise. Elite Prospects raved about McQueen’s shooting, passing, hockey sense, and physical play.

Like Cayden Lindstrom, he had a back injury, but had a solid season in the NCAA, playing 36 games and putting up 0.75 points per game.

With McTavish, the concern is whether he’ll develop the work ethic to reach his ceiling; with McQueen, the back issue seems to be behind him, and the suggestion from one NHL scout was that if not for the injury concern, he would have gone #2 in his draft class behind Matthew Schaefer.

That’s the type of swing I think Steve Yzerman needs to take, and I’d probably be willing to add to Larkin if Pat Verbeek drives a hard bargain.

Los Angeles Kings

Finally, we’ll close out this section with the Kings for a couple reasons: first off, Yzerman and LA GM Ken Holland have a very long working relationship; secondly, Ken Holland drafted Dylan Larkin so there may be a good relationship between the player and manager; and finally, Holland has committed to retooling the Kings rather than engaging a prolonged and painful rebuild.

Los Ángeles lost Anze Kopitar to retirement, so they will need to find another center to replace him and keep their five year playoff streak alive. There have been rumors linking Elias Pettersson to the Kings, and Larkin would be another solid option for the Los Angeles front office to consider. Either center would be a plug and play option, which would be attractive to an organization that is in win-now mode.

The problem from Detroit’s standpoint is the Kings’ prospect pool isn’t very attractive. They traded away arguably their best prospect in Liam Greentree when they acquired Artemi Panarin. They drafted centers with top 5 draft picks in back to back drafts in 2019 and 2020, but neither has impressed, with Quinton Byfield being able to keep his head above water, but not truly thrive. So while he’d be the most likely ask from either Vancouver or Detroit, the former #2 overall draft pick seems to have a solid floor but with big questions remaining regarding his ceiling as he approaches his 24th birthday this summer.

Revisiting the Retool

Dylan Larkin’s decision to request a trade has completely flipped the script as far as I’m concerned. Where just yesterday I thought the team would need to trade one of their best players in Alex DeBrincat in order to position themselves to draft a franchise forward, that position changed in a matter of hours.

Ultimately, I’m at ease with this change of events; DeBrincat is the sort of player you want to keep in Detroit, as he plays hard and is the first player in a Red Wings jersey to score 40 goals since Marian Hossa. Trading him would have been a bitter pill to swallow, but that seemed like the best path to getting out of the current malaise that has surrounded the organization.

With Larkin almost certainly being traded before opening night, this could heavily influence DeBrincat’s decision on whether he wants to stay in Detroit, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

With Larkin’s request, though, Detroit is positioned to make a hockey trade where they can hopefully acquire a young center who will fit in seamlessly with their young core. If that happens you can envision a scenario where the window opens up in another year or two as their top prospects push their way into the lineup.