On his 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman indicated Dylan Larkin has opened up his list of trade partners, with a suggestion that there are now four new teams Larkin would be willing to waive his trade protection for in order to be moved. This is good news and perhaps gives us reason to believe something could be done before the start of the season.
On the other hand…
Source: GumpadotCA
What I’m going to do here is put together what I think would be good trade value for the Red Wings. I am not saying the team in question would agree to this trade — at the start of the season most teams are pretty content with the state of their roster — but as the old saying goes, it takes two to tango, so Detroit has to feel they are getting good value in order to pull off a trade. Team ownership has already made it clear they expect Larkin to play if he’s not dealt, so the pressure at this point is on Larkin.
Before we get started, I think it’s important to highlight the viewpoint making the rounds that part of the reason for the blow up between former GM Steve Yzerman and Chris Ilitch that led to Yzerman being removed as GM is the suggestion that Ilitch wants a return heavy in players who can help the franchise win now.
The way these trades tend to work is you give a team looking to win a Cup a very attractive asset — in this case an elite 2C if not a quality 1C — and in return they give you something good in the form of a promising prospect or two. A team that is acquiring Larkin isn’t trading key pieces that would result in them taking two steps forward and then two back. So I’m going to keep this in mind as it will heavily color my perspective.
With that out of the way, let’s see what we can cook up.
The Washington Capitals
Washington is an interesting option, as is it isn’t full of Larkin’s Team USA teammates. The Capitals have handed out lots of trade protection themselves, and currently have $75,000 in cap space, which further complicates any trade.
Moving Larkin to Washington would likely have to include Dylan Strome coming back the other way. Strome and Larkin are similar players — with Larkin being a better player on a much longer deal — so if the Caps agreed to move Strome it would likely satisfy Chris Ilitch’s demand for a player who could help Detroit win now.
Assuming you could agree on swapping out the centers, the Capitals would still need to clear out $3.7 million to fit Larkin under the salary cap. With this being the case, I would offer two solutions for helping get Washington beneath the upper threshold of the salary cap:
Include the Protas brothers in the trade. I suspect this isn’t something Washington would agree to, but it would make the transaction work from a dollars and cents standpoint. Detroit, in return, would get three roster players. Again, I suspect this would never happen, but it’s something I would put out there if I was Shawn Horcoff.
Another option is to take a cap dump off Washington’s roster, but it must include three prospects: I personally like Ilya Protas, Andrew Cristall, and Oliver Suvanto. The highest AAV Washington has that doesn’t include trade protection is Martin Fehérváry’s $6 million for the next 7 years. He just signed this deal, however, so trading him seems highly unlikely to happen.
Other options would be Rasmus Sandin (currently injured), Vincent Desharnais or Timothy Liljegren. I guess backup goalie Charlie Lindgren could work as well, but that would be my ask.
Trade Overview
To Washington:
Dylan Larkin
To Detroit:
Dylan Strome
and
Aliaksei Protas and Ilya Protas
or
Cap dump (Sandin, Liljegren or Lindgren) + Ilya Protas + Andrew Cristall + Oliver Suvanto
The Vegas Golden Knights
I proposed a trade with Vegas when Larkin’s request first went public, but it included Pavel Dorofeyev, who was traded to the Rangers this summer. Vegas is currently $8.7 million over the cap, but if they can keep Alex Pietrangelo on the IR they may be able to squeak into cap compliance.
The other big issue with Vegas is nearly every player who would interest Detroit has trade protection. While Vegas has an uncanny ability to get players to waive their trade protection, it’s tough to come up with reasonable trade scenarios, which are highly sus to begin with.
Vegas ain’t trading Jack Eichel or Mitch Marner, and Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson are all on the wrong side of 30. Among the forwards, Ivan Barbashev is one guy where the Golden Knights may be able to get him to waive his trade protection, but that would still result in them coming up $3.7 million short when it comes to remaining compliant with the upper reaches of the salary cap.
I honestly don’t see how a deal gets done with Dorofyev getting moved earlier this summer.
The Colorado Avalanche
Similar to Vegas, I don’t see how a deal gets done. The Avs currently have $400,000 in cap space and all of their key players have trade protection. Technically Cale Makar’s trade protection doesn’t kick in until the summer, but they aren’t trading him after signing him to the richest contract in NHL history.
There’s no way to construct a trade here, so Larkin listing the Avalanche as an acceptable trade partner is truly dumb, but that description fits nearly his entire updated trade list.
The Dallas Stars
Dallas is an intriguing option, as they have been forced to move parts of their roster to fit under the salary cap while keeping their window to compete open. With just over $390,000 in cap space, general manager Jim Nill could very well feel the need to make a move to finally push his club over the top and claim the franchise’s second Cup.
From Detroit’s perspctive, the Red Wings would want either Jason Robertson with a signed extension, or Thomas Harley. Harley was rumored to be available in trade talks with Columbus that centered around Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski, but I can’t imagine Harley would be available in a Larkin trade unless Detroit was sending a defender to the Stars.
Like Quinn Hughes, Robertson has de facto trade protection, as he’ll become a free agent this summer if he doesn’t sign an extension. Is Detroit going to trade Dylan Larkin for perhaps 6 months of Jason Robertson? That seems unlikely.
Depending on how Detroit feels about Dylan Hryckowian, he could be a key piece coming back to Detroit, as he has some similarities to Logan Stankoven. I also liked Emil Hemming as a prospect, and he would fit in nicely with guys like Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Carter Bear, and Eddie Genborg.
While in theory I can see a deal getting done, the guys in Dallas who could make the money work from a salary cap perspective and don’t have trade protection are almost certainly either a) not available or b) wouldn’t sign an extension in Detroit. For instance, there’s no way Dallas is acquiring Dylan Larkin for Wyatt Johnston. I already covered Thomas Harley and Jason Robertson.
The Minnesota Wild
I also covered the Wild as a trade partner when Larkin’s request first became public. Pretty much nothing has changed since then, and while I found the trade options wanting, it’s clear Steve Yzerman felt the same way. I can understand why the Wild want Larkin after shipping out Marco Rossi, but it looks like Bill Guerin overplayed his hand here.
Things are going to get awfully uncomfortable if the season starts and Bill Guerin still hasn’t signed Quinn Hughes to an extension.
The Ilitch family have long memories — just ask Sergei Fedorov — and I can’t imagine them making a trade with Minnesota, particularly when the return guarantees they will badly lose the trade.
They aren’t going to do Dylan Larkin any favors at this point.
The Florida Panthers
I already covered the Panthers as they were part of Larkin’s initial three team list and you can understand why he’d want to play with fellow Team USA teammate Matthew Tkachuk. My proposal was to deal Larkin to Florida in exchange for Anton Lundell and the #9 overall pick in this past summer’s draft, but once Brady Tkachuk asked out of Ottawa and the deal with the Panthers was completed, that put an end to any chance of Larkin heading to south Florida.
Any trade with Florida would require Lundell being sent to Detroit, but I believe that ship has sailed.
The Tampa Bay Lightning
Like Dallas, Tampa is intriguing as it may be the time for the Lightning to push their chips in for one last run at a Stanley Cup. Adding Larkin to a center core that features Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli would give Tampa impressive depth down the middle of their forward group.
The problem? Detroit would almost certainly ask for JJ Moser, who is one of the few key Lightning players who currently doesn’t have trade protection. That would make Tampa’s defense vulnerable given most of their key defenders are on the wrong side of 35.
The math in a straight up Larkin for Moser trade wouldn’t quite work as Tampa currently has $1.8 million in cap space, leaving them about $200,000 above the cap ceiling with this trade. They could likely use an injury here or there to make the math math, but if I could, I would see if I could have them add Dylan Duke to the deal. While Duke may turn out to be a career AHL’er, I was impressed with him at the University of Michigan and I think he’d fit with what Todd McLellan wants from his team.
Trade Overview
To Tampa:
Dylan Larkin
To Detroit:
JJ Moser + Dylan Duke
I don’t think Julien BriseBois makes this trade, but it would be my ask if I was Shawn Horcoff.
Overall, I think Washington is the best fit. It sort of came out of left field given all of Larkin’s other acceptable trade destinations — the Caps don’t have any of his Team USA buddies and they aren’t a team which is viewed as a Cup favorite — but the fact they have zero cap space makes it a tough trade to swing.
I’d imagine it would be intriguing for Washington given their poor center depth, as Larkin would be a clear upgrade over Dylan Strome. And if it ends up happening, I have to say it will be a true popcorn moment when the Capitals top two centers are Pierre-Luc Dubois and Dylan Larkin.