When the news broke on Nikita Kucherov’s trade request, the narrative surrounding it was that it overshadowed Dylan Larkin informing the Red Wings the previous day that he would no longer suit up for the franchise. It was viewed as shade the likes of which you rarely see in a staid league like the National Hockey League.
Seriously, you’d expect this narrative from the WNBA, a sport that has exploded in growth, not the NHL where the biggest narrative over the past year or so has been a salary cap that is finally growing after years and years of modest growth under what’s been termed a flat cap.
My immediate thought on the Kucherov news was whether a trade between Detroit and Tampa would make sense? A large part of this is no doubt due to the prospect of moving on from Dylan Larkin’s negative energy that has surrounded the club for several seasons as they attempt to pull out of a prolonged rebuild that has resulted in them missing the playoffs for 10 straight seasons.
The problem? A player of Kucherov’s caliber — who puts up 100+ point seasons and competes for MVP trophies year after year — could lead to Tampa looking for a king’s ransom, as a player of Kucherov’s caliber would certainly have plenty of suitors as a rental, if not a player any club would happily sign to a long-term contract.
Another problem could be whether Kucherov is only willing to be moved to a team that is a leading contender to win the Cup? That’s obviously not Detroit. His trade protection allows him to provide a list of 10 teams where he would accept being moved, so he’ll have a say in where he ultimately ends up if he’s traded.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at why a Larkin for Kucherov trade may make sense.
The Case for Nikita Kucherov in Detroit
The impetus for the trade request is that Kucherov is upset about how contract negotiations have gone with Tampa GM Julien BriseBois on an extension. There’s no question Kucherov is worth an $18m annual AAV, which would be nearly double his current salary. However Tampa is in a tough spot with four other forwards currently set to make a combined $31.75 million over the next 4 seasons. Then there’s the Tampa defense, which relies heavily on several defenders aged 35 or older, including John Carlsson, Victor Hedmen and Ryan McDonagh.
The rumors are that BriseBois has been playing hardball in an attempt to squeeze Kucherov, who has apparently grown tired of the grind over what he feels he’s rightly owed.
For Kucherov, he’s looking to get paid, with the implication being he’s open to signing an extension as part of a sign and trade. If that’s the case, Detroit could make sense as the Red Wings have loads of cap space.
How much? For the current season, they have $30 million. They have $48.8 million in space next season, with their top two forwards locked up through 2032 and 2034, and presumptive team captain Moritz Seider locked up through 2031. The rest of the core is being built around younger players who have been drafted and developed, with players like Emmitt Finnie, Marco Kasper, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Anton Johansson, William Wallinder and Axel Sandin Pellikka all still on their entry-level contracts where each makes less than $1 million per season.
So Detroit could easily pay Kucherov whatever he seeks in salary. And while Detroit had a reputation for grinding players under former general manager Steve Yzerman, Kucherov is a proven player, and the Red Wings just demonstrated they are willing to pay market rate for proven players when they inked Alex DeBrincat to a $91 million extension that kicks in next season.
In the past, Detroit has pursued players like Steven Stamkos, Mitch Marner, and Nicolaj Ehlers, with the latter two rebuffing them. In the case of Stamkos, Nashville outbid everyone else for his services. For some players, they are looking to cash in, and that does seem to be a primary motivation for Kucherov: he’s made it clear he feels he deserves a significant pay bump, as he’s played on a bargain contract while helping the Bolts win two Stanley Cup championships. Now, the thinking goes, is the time to cash in.
Detroit is a team that could do what Nashville did with Stamkos: outbid every other suitor.
Should the Red Wings acquire Kucherov, they would have elite depth down the right wing with Kucherov, Lucas Raymond and Viktor Arvidsson as their top three forwards.
While scoring line center would continue to be a concern, Kucherov would help bolster what is currently the 13th team in the league in expected goals for.
The Case for Dylan Larkin in Tampa
Tampa GM Julien BriseBois almost certainly understands that Tampa as currently constructed is a team built to have success during the regular season, but isn’t likely to have much success come playoff time. The Bolts last made it out of the first round of the NHL Playoffs back in 2021-22, when their core was largely in their late 20s.
If BriseBois wants at least one more run with his current core, he’s likely looking for a win-now piece, a player firmly in his prime who can contribute over the next four seasons, and if that player is cost controlled, so much the better.
That describes Dylan Larkin, who has been praised for his all-around play by Carolina head coach Rod Brind’Amour. He’d contribute in all areas and chip in enough offense to give Tampa a strong core at center that goes three deep with Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli.
I think the odds of Tampa getting an exciting prospect are high; for instance they may be able to work a trade with a team like San Jose and receive Will Smith in return, the problem though, is a player with Smith’s pedigree is likely going to seek a $10+ million AAV as soon as this summer.
With an increase in the salary cap, young players are expecting big deals based more on potential than actual production. With Larkin, you know you are getting a forward who has a historical track record of scoring 30 goals and putting up 70 points. $8.7 million for that level of production provides extremely high value, particularly for a team like Tampa who are focused on the here and now.
Larkin’s point production may drop off if he’s getting fewer minutes than Brayden Point, but he’ll also be playing with a core group of gifted forwards who may boost his point totals.
Nikita Kucherov currently receives 4:50 in power play time, and while Larkin likely wouldn’t eat up all that time, he’s historically been a guy who plays north of 3 minutes and is highly effective in his role on the bumper with the man advantage. Larkin has also been one of Detroit’s leading PK’ers averaging 1:30 of ice time short-handed. Kucherov doesn’t PK at all, which is understandable given his exceptional skill level.
While there are plenty of players who may be considered a better fit than Larkin, the combination of being a very good win-now piece combined with his fantastic cap hit could make him a attractive fit for BriseBois. In fact, I’d be willing to add a bit, whether that be a young center like Nate Danielson or a young defender, as either option would remain on a very reasonable contract for at least 4 more seasons.
Will a deal be swung that moves both disgruntled players? The odds of predicting trades are extremely long, and I have no idea what Julien BriseBois would be looking for in return for a Kucherov trade. While it’s reasonable to expect him to be on the hunt for win now pieces, he may decide to acquire a package of future pieces, or a combo of a win now piece along with a younger prospect.
While I remain skeptical BriseBois would view Larkin as an acceptable target in a Kucherov trade, as a Red Wings fan, this would be the type of move that would signal Detroit ownership is serious about finally pulling out of the rebuild.