Credit: Detroit Hockey Now
With a shortened training camp due to the expanded 84 game regular season, it’s not a bad idea to give some thought to what Todd McLellan’s opening night lineup may look like. There are two big question marks, namely Dylan Larkin’s status and Simon Edvinsson’s new contract. While Larkin made his own bed with his trade request, only deputizing Shawn Horcoff one week ago to sign NHL players to contracts is an own goal for Chris Ilitch.
For the sake of the opening night lineup, I will consider both players unavailable, but will also pencil them into the lineup should they eventually play for the team this season.
Forwards
First Line
Alex DeBrincat — Andrew Copp — Lucas Raymond
With the departure of Patrick Kane, it makes sense to bump Cat up to the top line. While the Red Wings will lose scoring depth, they will have two wingers capable of generating 40 goals. Last season Todd McLellan criticized Raymond’s unwillingness to shoot the puck, however he’s commented during training camp that the Swedish winger is beginning to call his number more often and use his elite shot. Andrew Copp isn’t expected to do much goal scoring, so Raymond will need to become a major contributor on this front.
Andrew Copp is far from an ideal pivot for this line, however he’s routinely been bumped up to the second line center position due to poor depth across the organization, so it makes sense for him to fill this slot at the start of the season.
Wildcard
If Dylan Larkin skates for the team at some point in the future, it would make sense to put him in this spot given his career to date in Detroit. We’ll have to see how long his ‘injury’ persists, but he was back on the ice for a recent practice session, so we may see him in the lineup at some point.
When asked about Larkin, Todd McLellan focused on his on-ice contributions, so it seems clear he would be utilized to the full extent of his capabilities should he return to the lineup.
With Larkin as its pivot, this is a potent first line capable of potting 100 or more goals on the season. Larkin’s recent press conference, however, creates some serious skepticism on how his season would go should he be added to the lineup.
Second Line
Emmitt Finnie — Marco Kasper — Viktor Arvidsson
This was the second line I predicted when I wrote my article on Arvidsson and how we could expect him to be used in Detroit this season. Todd McLellan compared Finnie to Trevor Moore, who played on a line with Arvi in Los Angeles, and when Arvidsson has been at his best, it’s typically when he’s placed on lines with teammates who generate hits or play with a style that is described as ‘heavy’ or ‘hard on the puck’.
Finnie and Kasper led the team in hits by a large margin last season, so they seem to be a natural fit for Arvidsson. This line features speed and tenacity, and as such they should be capable of tilting the ice.
This group would form an elite third line, but given the state of the forward group in Detroit, they will be asked to punch above their weight class on a scoring line. McLellan commented that he expects a bounce back season from Kasper, who may be capable of producing 20 goals, and Finnie’s rookie season compares favorably with Casey Mittelstadt, who has been a 15 goal scorer.
If everything goes according to plan, you could get 60 goals from this group.
Third Line
Mason Appleton — JT Compher — Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
While the top two lines seem pretty easy to suss out, the third line is where things get dicey. Compher took the second-most draws behind Larkin last season, so it makes sense to slot him further up the lineup. His counting stats, however, were truly sobering, and he ranks among the worst forwards in Detroit when it comes to hits.
This is why I think McLellan will pair him with Appleton and Brandsegg-Nygård. MBN has a pro ready game that emphasizes physicality, and Appleton was part of one of the best third lines in the NHL two seasons ago in Winnipeg. While his counting stats last season were wildly unimpressive, Appleton was credited with 89 hits, so he can still play the body.
The offensive production is almost certainly going to be terrible with this line, with MBN having a decent shot at being the leading goal scorer among the group. It will largely be a checking line where Appleton and MBN could combine for over 200 hits, with the offensive output probably ending up somewhere around 30 goals.
Wildcard
At the third line center position, the hope is Nate Danielson can lock down the 3C role at some point in the season. This has been my projection for him as an NHL’er when it became clear the offense that was hoped for never materialized for the nearly 22 year old pivot.
Danielson has the size, skating ability, and defensive acumen to be a high quality third line center, but I suspect Compher gets the nod to start the season.
Fourth Line
Michael Rasmussen — Nate Danielson — Keegan Kolesar
I really wanted to pencil in Carter Bear on this line, but his production to date hasn’t made him a lock to be in the starting lineup on opening night. So while I do think he’ll wind up in Detroit at some point during the season, his current trajectory suggests he’ll begin the season in Grand Rapids.
McLellan made a positive comment about Michael Rasmussen’s play in a recent preseason game, and the hope is the head coach has emphasized what Rasmussen will need to do in order to remain in the NHL. If the big forward can continue to pile up the hits, win board battles, and get to the front of the net, he can be a solid contributor in Detroit, albeit as a fourth line forward.
Keegan Kolesar, who was acquired via trade this summer, will bring the joie de vivre to the locker room and the fisticuffs to the ice, serving as a joyful warrior. Kolesar has averaged 262 hits per season over the past 5 campaigns, and if Rasmussen can embrace his best NHL attributes, this is a line that could generate in excess of 400 hits, penning an opponent into their end of the ice, thereby giving the top line some easier zone starts.
Ansar Khan’s suggestion for tonight’s lineup is that Danielson will play on the third line, and I consider this a legit possibility for this season, but I think Compher’s face-off capabilities make him the likely 3C, at least to start the season. I will admit, however, that putting Danielson on the ice with two guys who may contribute 20 goals total won’t help Nate develop his playmaking skills.
Danielson, however, has the skating and defensive game to fit in with Rasmussen and Kolesar, but you will be limiting his potential for offensive production. Also having two top 10 draft picks on your fourth line is obviously not a great use of draft capital, but they should both be able to fulfill these roles quite well.
Wildcard
One of Steve Yzerman’s final bits of business as Red Wings GM was to sign center Théo Rochette to a one-year contract. The 24 year old is an intriguing acquisition, as he put up 42 goals and 106 points in his final season in the QMJHL before departing for Lausanne, Switzerland to play three years of pro hockey.
Rochette has looked good in training camp, and given Detroit’s lack of scoring depth, he could make the opening night roster. Does he start off as a 13th forward, or does he force his way into the lineup?
Having Nate Danielson as your fourth line center may not make sense given he has one more year of waiver eligibility and would get the most ice time of every forward in Grand Rapids should he be sent down. As an organization, the Red Wings prefer to have a guy like Danielson play first line minutes and contribute to both speciality teams units in the AHL rather than take on a minor role in the NHL.
If that’s the case, Rochette may make the opening night lineup.
Defenders
First Pairing
Albert Johansson — Moritz Seider
Johansson is expected to play on the second pairing with Justin Faulk, but with Simon Edvinsson still not signed, AlJo will likely get bumped up to play alongside Seider. While they’ve never played big minutes together, their advanced stats over the past couple seasons are exceptional. Part of that is no doubt due to the fact Seider is one of the best defenders in the league, but Johansson has seen his role steadily grow under head coach Todd McLellan.
While this pairing isn’t ideal given Simon Edvinsson is rounding into a very good first pair defender in his own right, McLellan has mentioned the possibility of splitting up Edvinsson and Seider from time to time in order to spread the wealth. When that happens, I would expect Johansson to be the #1 LD.
Wildcard
Simon Edvinsson will walk right into the #1LD spot the moment pen is put to paper to sign his new deal. The 23 year old defender has a rare combination of skating and skill for a player with his 6’6” frame, and he displays a decent amount of aggression which the lineup has sorely lacked during the rebuild.
It’s not out of the question for the Edvinsson-Seider pairing to be considered the best in the business as soon as this season.
Second Pairing
Ben Chiarot — Justin Faulk
This pairing is to be taken with a grain of salt, as it will be broken up the second Edvinsson is signed. While Chiarot has routinely been played above his capabilities as a member of the Red Wings, doing so once again this season should be short lived.
This is a classic pairing with Chiarot serving as the defensive defenseman and Justin Faulk the offensive defenseman.
It will be…fine. With that being said, the sooner Chiarot is bumped down to the third pairing, the better.
Third Pairing
William Wallinder — Axel Sandin Pellikka
Wallinder is out of waiver exemptions, so I suspect Detroit will hold onto him as a 7th or 8th defender while only carrying 13 forwards. People who regularly watch Griffins games have been down on Wallinder’s potential as an NHL’er, and I suspect his playing time will be in direct proportion to how long it takes to sign Simon Edvinsson to a new contract.
Wallinder is the type of guy Detroit has strategically waived in the past — early in the season after rosters have been settled — in order to successfully land him in Grand Rapids; but with Wallinder’s size, skating ability and cheap contract, he’s a player who stands a good chance of being claimed.
Sandin Pellikka had a reasonably successful rookie campaign, and easier matchups on the third pairing should allow him to become a strong point producer. He fits in with the new breed of smaller defenders who are just as much a forward as defender.
This pairing could be pretty bad given concerns about Wallinder’s ability to tread water in the NHL, and if that’s the case the team would need to double shift Albert Johansson and Ben Chiarot to keep it from getting caved in.
Chiarot is the natural fit here once Edvinsson is back in the lineup.
Wildcard
Anton Johansson was expected to spend the season in Grand Rapids, but a 4 point night against the Penguins may make it difficult to send him down. Another nice feature with Johansson is his physical play, as it perfectly fits what head coach Todd McLellan has emphasized during training camp.
Again, the safe bet is to expect Johansson to be sent down to Grand Rapids given he’s waiver exempt so you can hold onto Jacob Bernard-Docker, but given the need for offense and skaters who play with a physical edge, I do think Johansson has a decent shot at sticking in Detroit.
Goalies
This one is very straight forward with John Gibson being your starter and Daniil Tarasov serving as the back up.