While it’s been a tumultuous summer for the Detroit Red Wings organization, that shouldn’t detract from this summer’s signing of Viktor Arvidsson to a 2-year, $10 million contact.
Arvidsson’s had a successful NHL career to date, playing nearly 700 NHL games with 5 seasons of 25 or more goals. He came into his own in the league as a member of the Nashville Predators, scoring 94 goals over three seasons from 2016-17 to 2018-19.
The bottom fell out for Nashville towards the end of Arvi’s time in Music City, as the Predators went from a Stanley Cup Finals appearance in the 2016-17 season to first round fodder over his final four seasons. He was eventually traded to Los Angeles in 2021 with three years remaining on his contract.
Arvidsson continued to be a quality scorer in Los Angeles until his final season got derailed by back surgery. When he hit free agency, he signed to a 2-year deal with Edmonton and, after a disappointing season with the Oil, was moved to Boston last year, where he regained his scoring touch, potting 25 goals.
Today, we’re going to do a deep dive into Arvidsson’s deployment during his time with both the Kings and Bruins, as those are likely to give us the best insight into how Todd McClellan will use him this season.
Viktor Arvidsson: isolated impact per 1200 average deployment minutes
Credit: Micah Blake McCurdy, Hockey Viz
For Arvi, I’d imagine a big part of the appeal with Detroit is the fact the 2RW spot was opening up, with talk of Patrick Kane pursuing a deal with another organization — ultimately being reunited with the Chicago Blackhawks. As the visualization above demonstrates, Arvidsson’s scoring rates position him as a middle six forward.
Using Hockey Viz’s synthetic goals metric, Arvidsson has typically scored at a rate that would fit in line with a 3rd through 8th forward, which, while it trails Kane’s sG (which suggests he’s been a top 5 forward during his time in Detroit), represents a player ideally suited for the 3RW spot. Like nearly everyone in Detroit, he’d be ideal if he could be deployed in his proper place within the lineup rather than having to play further up, but he’s a quality addition for a team that needs scoring, as Detroit was 17th in the league last season in expected goals.
As we dig in, let’s start off by taking a big picture view of Avi’s deployment across his last three organizations.
Source: Hockey Reference
Looking at how he was deployed under Todd McLellan in Los Angeles during the 2022-23 season, it’s no shock he’d be willing to reunite with him in Detroit: Arvi got first line minutes 5v5 and got heavy power play time before his 2023-24 season was lost to injury.
The 59 points he put up in 2022-23 represented his best season since his age 24 campaign in Nashville, where he compiled 29 goals and 61 points. He averaged 17 minutes a night in LA that season and shot at a very reasonable 11.4% clip, and while he wasn’t the dominant 5v5 goal scorer he was in Nashville — from age 23 to 25, he averaged just under 25 even-strength goals per season — he was still a respectable point producer.
Let’s take a look at who centered Arvidsson back in 2022-23.
Arvi’s Line Splits: Los Angeles (2022-23)
Source: Natural Stat Trick
Arvidsson was used as a middle six right wing, with his primary pivot being 2nd line center Philip Danault. The duo performed well, with Danault and Arvidsson generating an expected 5v5 goal differential of +6.77, despite taking more than half of their draws in the defensive zone.
The addition of Moore to the mix as their left wing worked out reasonably well, with the three forwards generating an xGD of +4.65.
Overall, Arvidsson’s 2002-23 season in Los Angeles should make us optimistic about his role in replacing Patrick Kane, the question is who will end up centering him in Detroit, and we’ll get to that when we conclude this article.
Next let’s take a look at his deployment in Boston last season.
Arvi’s Line Splits: Boston (2025-26)
Source: Natural Stat Trick
Arvidsson played almost exclusively with Pavel Zacha, and that line punched well above their expected goal differential (-3.36) by a whopping 22 goals. Arvi’s time on Fraser Minter’s line also went well, as the duo kept their heads above water for both expected and actual goal differentials. Arvidsson also received a small amount of ice time with top centers Morgan Geekie and Elias Lindholm, but it was so small it’s not going to tell us much.
Looking at Hockey Viz’s Presence and Importance chart for the Bruins last season, Zacha is listed as the Bruins’ third center behind Lindholm and Geekie, while Arvidsson is listed 7th among all Boston forwards; so Zacha and Arvidsson — along with Casey Mittelstadt — provided the key pieces to a very high end NHL third line.
This fits in line with Arvidsson’s career to date, going all the way back to when he broke out with the Predators. The chart listed at the top of the article which tracks Arvidsson’s production per 1200 minute season places him firmly in the 3rd line forward spot as a player who can provide exceptional scoring depth.
If you believe Boston’s play-style resulted in their elevated goal production — Boston finished last season 29th in expected goals, but their goals for placed them 11th in the league — then you may feel skeptical about Arvidsson being able to replicate this production in Detroit. In Boston, Arvidsson — along with Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt — formed one of the best middle six lines in the entire league.
The only forward line across the league with a better goal differential…(+19) is the Colorado Avalanche’s top forward grouping of Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen, and Martin Necas — who have outscored foes, 37-16, in their 474 minutes of 5-on-5 reps (+21).
-Conor Ryan, Boston.com
Boston coach Marco Sturm commented on how this line tended to score their goals, which was anything but tic tac toe:
That’s what they do, right? It was not pretty, but that’s how they play. They’re just hard around pucks…
-Bruins head coach Marco Sturm following a 6-1 victory over Winnipeg
In looking at Arvidsson’s finishing stats over at Hockey Viz, he appears to be above average at scoring in close or near the right face-off circle. He’s also good at poaching goals by getting behind the defense on breakaways. In the o-zone, he thrives off the chaos that ensues from a forecheck and typically sets up shop around the opposing net.
It remains to be seen whether Detroit has the capability to deploy a middle six line similar to how Boston utilized Arvidsson last season; I have some thoughts on how this would work, which we’ll get to in the conclusion of this article.
How Arvidsson is used on the Power Play
You have to go back to that 2022-23 season in LA to find a campaign where Arvidsson was a major contributor on the power play, potting 10 goals with the man advantage. For that campaign, Arvidsson was the 5th most utilized forward on the ice, with Drew Doughty dominating ice time among defenders.
Arvi primarily played with Danault as his center on the power play, as well as with Arthur Kaliyev, who scored 8 power play goals, but also got decent ice time with Anže Kopitar, who potted 7 power play goals, and Adrian Kempe, who led the Kings with 11 power play tallies.
Conversely, when in Edmonton, Arvi was on the second unit, with his most common linemates being Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jeff Skinner. Hyman plays a similar game to Arvidsson, and was a much more established player in Edmonton, so it’s no shock Arvi wasn’t a major contributor to the Oil man advantage.
Edmonton leaned very heavily on Evan Bouchard, Draisaitl, McDavid, Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins as their primary attackers with the man advantage, which resulted in Arvidsson only contributing one power play goal.
Last season in Boston, Arvidsson was 5th among forwards in the pecking order, often playing with Casey Mittelstadt and David Pasterňák. Pasta had one of his poorer seasons when it came to power play scoring, and Arvi only contributed 4 goals himself.
While the Bruins had a top 10 power play unit in terms of goals scored and success percentage, Morgan Geekie, along with Pasterňák, Zacha and McAvoy were the guys driving the bus, with each guy being on the ice for 9.8 or more goals per 60 minutes. For Arvidsson, he was only on the ice for 7.5 goal for per 60 last season.
The takeaway here is he’s likely going to need Power Play 1 minutes in order to score with the man advantage.
Now let’s take a look at Detroit’s depth at right wing next season.
Detroit’s Depth at Right Wing
Source: Hockey Reference
On the surface, Viktor Arvidsson would seem to be a solid replacement for Patrick Kane as the Red Wings 2RW. For comparison, last season Patrick Kane put up 16 goals off a 9.5% shooting percentage, and averaged 14:30 TOI at 5v5. So while he played 2 more minutes per game at even strength, Arvidsson’s shooting and goal production were much better.
Arvidsson’s time in Edmonton, however, suggests he struggles when given tougher minutes. During his season with the Oil, he was 5th among forwards and 2nd among wingers according to Hockey Viz’s Presence and Importance chart for forwards.
While it’s tough to suss out one consistent lineup at even strength during his time in Edmonton, Arvidsson was most effective when on the ice with Leon Draisaitl, Jeff Skinner and Vasily Podkolzin. Of course Draisaitl was getting some of the toughest minutes in the league, and when the two were paired up at even-strength, Edmonton didn’t produce offense.
While Leon Draisaitl got a decent number of Selke votes that season, he’s not your typical checking line center, and that’s perfectly fine given his skill set, but it wasn’t a great fit for Arvidsson to do his best work.
When Arvi was on the ice with Adam Henrique, the Oil were spinning their wheels with some of the highest expected goals against and lowest expected goals for among Edmonton skaters.
To me, this demonstrates that Arvidsson would perform best on a third line that has a clear identity as a forechecking line that is hard on the puck. That describes his time in Los Angeles in 2022-23 and with Boston last season.
In Los Angeles, linemates Philip Danault and Trevor Moore combined for 141 hits. This past season, while his linemates Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt’s hit totals don’t jump off the page, as Marco Sturm commented, they were hard on the puck. In both situations, his line got less than half their zone starts in the o-zone, but were generally capable of holding their own when it came to tilting the ice.
Viktor Arvidsson’s Role in Detroit
The hope as the 2026-27 season opens is that Marco Kasper can turn into a Pavel Zacha-like pivot. While Kasper had a horrific sophomore campaign last season, his 37 point rookie season as a 20 year old was better than any season Zacha had prior to his age 25 season when he hit 57 points.
To continue with the hopium for next season, Emmitt Finnie may be able to hold down the Cassey Mittelstadt role, as the 20 year old former 7th round pick put up 30 points in his age 20 season; Mittelstadt hit 25 points in his age 20 season as a member of the Sabres.
While past production guarantees nothing, there’s reason to believe Kasper and Finnie, who both made the NHL at age 20, are on a solid trajectory.
Oh, and last season Kasper and Finnie combined to generate 317 hits. That’s a line that would be hard on the puck, which would give Arvidsson his best chance at producing 25 or more goals for Detroit. The question of course is whether the Red Wings will use this group as a 2nd or 3rd line?
Put on your Red Wings tinted glasses, and squint real hard, and you can see this being a second line that Todd McLellan can expect to compete on a nightly basis. You’d prefer to see them dominate as a third line, but as has been the case throughout Detroit’s rebuild, you are often stuck utilizing players further up the lineup than their ideal spot.
If this unit cannot keep their head above water as the second line, it may make sense to play Andrew Copp and JT Compher as the nucleus of your second line, thereby bumping the Finnie-Kasper-Arvidsson group down to the third line.
On the power play, the Red Wings have lost two of their top 5 forwards in Kane and James van Riemsdyk, with their #2 forward in Dylan Larkin likely to be moved at some point this season. This likely suggests a PP1 unit of DeBrincat, Larkin, Raymond, Seider and Arvidsson, at least for the start of the season. If that’s the case, I’m bullish on Arvidsson making a serious run at the 10 power play goals he scored for the Kings in 2022-23.
Even strength is going to be more of a challenge, particularly if Arvidsson is paired up with Finnie and Kasper, but it’s also a line that has the potential to punch above their weight class given the type of game the two youngsters play.
For as long as he remains with the club, Dylan Larkin could be expected to center the top line with Alex DeBrincat on the left wing and Lucas Raymond on the right flank. That’s a legit top scoring line so long as Larkin can play at the level expected from him. It may also help goose his production, which could help drive up his trade value.
The second line is where the big, difficult questions pop up.
If Finnie and Kasper can hold down second line duties, there’s reason to be optimistic about Detroit’s top two lines, at least until Larkin’s trade request finally gets resolved.